.jpg?w=800&resize=800,500&ssl=1 "Rixi Moncada")
Recent opinion surveys reveal an unforeseen shift in the race for the presidency in Honduras. The candidate from the governing party, Rixi Moncada, has experienced a continuous drop in poll standings, creating new obstacles for the Liberty and Refoundation Party (LIBRE) as it strives to retain control in the elections slated for November 30.
Sustained decline in electoral preferences
Information published by polling organizations like Paradigma, Pro-Encuestas, and national media platforms such as HCH shows a significant drop in backing for the candidate of the ruling party. As per the Paradigma study conducted from May 4 to 17, Moncada received only 11.3% of the votes, lagging behind Salvador Nasralla of the Liberal Party (25.6%) and Nasry Asfura of the National Party (21.2%). In the same survey, 13.9% of participants stated they were uncertain.
Meanwhile, the Pro-Encuestas study from June 5 to 7 shows a slight uptick for Moncada, with 28.5%, although again behind Asfura (36.3%) and Nasralla (34.2%). Meanwhile, HCH reported on June 12 that Moncada’s voting intention was around 16%, while Asfura registered 45%, with Nasralla in the range between 25% and 35%.
This drop contrasts with the numbers from March, when the TResearch survey showed Moncada having a voting intention close to 44.9%. The gap signifies a significant decrease within just under a three-month period, amid a political situation characterized by intense competition and increasing fragmentation of the voter base.
Reconfiguration of the political map
The shift in voting tendencies indicates not just a decrease in support for the candidate of the ruling party, but also a rise in prominence for opposition figures. Nasralla and Asfura consistently rank higher than Moncada in all the latest surveys, suggesting an upcoming transformation in the political scene before November.
In this case, the proportion of voters who have not made a decision continues to be a critical element. Even though some new surveys do not mention these individuals, figures from May indicate that nearly one out of every seven voters is still unsure about their choice. This unpredictability in voter sentiment allows for potential shifts in the present direction, based on how successful the campaigns are in the concluding phase.
Responses and approaches of the governing party
In light of these findings, the LIBRE party has started to re-evaluate its stance. Representatives of the party blame the drop in the survey results on what they see as “misinformation efforts” driven by opposing factions. Nevertheless, the leadership acknowledges the necessity to promptly implement strategic changes, including modifications in political messaging, the campaign staff, and their communication approach with voters.
Six months before the elections, the challenge for the ruling party lies not only in regaining ground against its rivals, but also in rebuilding a more solid support base in a context of growing competition. The room for maneuver is narrowing as the electoral calendar advances, and the coming weeks will be decisive in determining whether Moncada’s candidacy manages to reposition itself or whether the current trend consolidates.
A visible situation with underlying conflicts
The Honduran electoral landscape is heading toward a closer contest than expected at the beginning of the year. The loss of support for the ruling party’s candidate, the rise of opposition forces, and the weight of undecided voters raise questions about the political system’s ability to channel the growing electoral momentum.
The evolution of the campaigns, the institutional response to possible tensions, and citizen participation will be determining factors in a process that is shaping up to be a key test for the country’s democratic stability.