A bit more than four months ahead of the general elections set for November 30, Honduras is experiencing an institutional turmoil characterized by power concentration, conflicts among state entities, and an increasing public mistrust environment. At the heart of this circumstance is Manuel “Mel” Zelaya Rosales, who is a past president and presently serves as the general coordinator for the Libertad y Refundación (LIBRE) party. He is regarded by multiple groups as the primary political strategist for the ruling party and a significant player in determining the pre-election context.
Political control and institutional apparatus
Since his return to political life after the 2009 coup, Zelaya has built a power structure that goes beyond the party leadership. His influence extends to the executive branch led by his wife, President Xiomara Castro, to the National Congress, and to autonomous bodies such as the National Electoral Council (CNE), through the appointment of allies and family members to strategic positions.
Analysts and local newspapers concur that this decision-making centralization is an intentional tactic by Zelaya to fortify LIBRE’s dominance over governmental bodies. One of the frequent criticisms involves the preferential allocation of public assets and processes to benefit party agendas, leading to concerns regarding the nation’s democratic condition.
Challenges within the election commission and lack of public confidence
One of the main sources of institutional tension is the CNE, whose independence has been called into question due to internal blockages, external pressure, and disputes among its members. Opposition sectors and civil society organizations have warned of the risk of an electoral process controlled by the ruling party, which increases the possibility of challenges, conflict, and the erosion of democratic legitimacy.
Groups affiliated with LIBRE, which have led demonstrations and blockades in support of the ruling party, have also been accused of coercing electoral authorities. The growing perception of institutional manipulation has led to a loss of confidence in the process, fueling a climate of polarization and discontent that could result in abstention, protests, or incidents of electoral violence.
Controversies, strategies, and internal conflicts
In this context, Zelaya’s circle has been shaken by incidents that have harmed the party in power’s reputation. The latest, associated with the notorious “narco-video,” has resulted in the departure of individuals allied with the ex-president and increased strains in the administration. Despite Zelaya’s attempts to dissociate himself from these occurrences, his influence as a political strategist has been crucial in brokering internal compromises to avert additional splits within LIBRE.
Despite the turbulence, Zelaya has managed to maintain party cohesion by forging alliances and defusing divisions that threatened the stability of the ruling party’s political project. This room for maneuver reinforces his role as an indispensable figure for the ruling party’s governability, but it also makes him the main target of criticism of the current democratic situation.
An essential player in shaping authority
Zelaya’s trajectory from his ouster in 2009 to his current position reveals his ability to influence the national agenda and shape the country’s political dynamics. Founder of LIBRE and architect of its rise to power in 2021, he has played a central role in the party’s strategic decisions, even in contexts of crisis and confrontation with traditional sectors.
For his opponents, Zelaya represents the main obstacle to democratic institutions; for his supporters, he is a political actor who has confronted the historical elites and defended a project of national refoundation. This polarization reflects a deep fracture in Honduran society, in which political figures concentrate both extreme support and rejection.
An uncertain scenario ahead of the electoral process
Mel Zelaya’s position within Honduras’ political scene prompts inquiries regarding the nation’s institutional trajectory and the clarity of the forthcoming election procedures. The blend of centralized power, internal frictions among electoral entities, and controversies undermining public trust fosters a highly uncertain atmosphere.
With the electoral calendar advancing and political divisions growing, Honduras faces the challenge of ensuring a legitimate and credible process. The outcome of this stage will depend largely on the ability of institutional actors to resist pressure, restore public confidence, and ensure fair conditions for the democratic contest.