Cinco meses antes de las elecciones generales el 30 de noviembre, el partido gobernante Libertad y Refundación (LIBRE) se encuentra en una coyuntura crítica, caracterizada por divisiones internas, acusaciones de corrupción y un notable descenso en las intenciones de voto. En un escenario electoral cada vez más incierto, el desgaste acumulado del partido en el poder pone en peligro la continuidad de su mandato.
Breakdown in unity and internal conflicts
The selection of Rixi Moncada as the ruling party’s candidate exposed tensions that had been building within LIBRE. The subsequent resignation of Congressman Jorge Cálix, a long-time member of the organization, revealed deep disagreements over the party’s political direction and leadership style. Cálix, along with other leaders who also left the party, denounced authoritarian practices and a culture of exclusion.
In reaction, the leaders of the party organized rallies to show backing for both President Xiomara Castro and Moncada. Nonetheless, these measures did not succeed in changing the image of a diminished group and have been viewed by different groups as efforts to maintain political dominance in challenging circumstances.
Embezzlement controversies and transparency inquiries
The crisis worsened with the revelation of alleged irregularities in the Secretariat of Social Development (SEDESOL), where deputies affiliated with the ruling party were accused of diverting funds allocated to social programs. The most emblematic case was that of Congresswoman Isis Cuéllar, whose suspension was announced along with the cancellation of social funds and an unprecedented measure: the collective resignation of the party from legislative immunity.
Although these decisions seem to be quite decisive, opposition parties, particularly the National Party, have labeled them as gestures meant to distract the public. As per their representatives, the measures taken by the ruling party lack real consequences or thorough investigations to impose responsibility.
Private sector discontent and calls to halt institutional deterioration
Criticism has not been limited to the political sphere. Leading voices in the business sector have expressed concern about the country’s direction. In a recent public statement, Eduardo Facussé, former president of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Cortés (CCIC), directly blamed the government for betraying the popular mandate with practices that, according to him, include nepotism, discretionary use of public funds, and lack of transparency in emblematic cases such as SEDESOL, the Koriun scam, and allegations of links to criminal networks.
Facussé warned of the weakening of institutions and called on citizens to defend the rule of law in the face of what he considered an attempt to consolidate an authoritarian and financially unsustainable model.
Collapse in the polls and reconfiguration of the electoral map
The latest surveys show a swift drop in LIBRE’s voter support. Based on information gathered from May to June, backing for the current party has varied from 11% to 28.5%, significantly lower than the 42% seen in March. This decrease, along with inconsistencies across surveys, indicates a divided electoral base looking for other options.
Simultaneously, rival candidates like Salvador Nasralla and Nasry Asfura have made headway, achieving backing levels between 25% and 36%. Public approval also reflects the declining image of the government: President Xiomara Castro has an average score of merely 4.1 out of 10, amidst an environment characterized by ongoing scandals and an increasing sense of ineffectiveness.
A doubtful future for the governing party
The current situation presents LIBRE with a major challenge. The combination of internal crises, institutional deterioration, loss of credibility, and citizen rejection has weakened its position ahead of the general elections. If this trajectory continues, the ruling party risks not only losing control of the executive branch but also seeing the political project that brought it to power in 2021 compromised.
En esta situación, el resultado dependerá de la capacidad del partido para reorganizar su estructura interna, atender las demandas sociales y proporcionar respuestas concretas a las acusaciones de corrupción. De lo contrario, las elecciones del 30 de noviembre podrían representar un punto de inflexión en la política de Honduras.