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Analyzing Financial Inclusion in Honduras: Pre-Election Credit Trends

Analyzing Financial Inclusion in Honduras: Pre-Election Credit Trends

The recent publication of the Financial Inclusion Module within the November 2024 Permanent Multi-Purpose Household Survey (EPHPM), conducted by the National Institute of Statistics (INE Honduras) in collaboration with the National Banking and Insurance Commission (CNBS) and the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), provides an updated snapshot of the Honduran population’s participation in the formal financial system. The survey, which covered 7,250 households equivalent to 26,576 people, provides highly representative data on access, use, and financial education, offering relevant information at a time marked by political debates on credit regulation.

Credit use and determining factors

The document reveals a direct relationship between the utilization of credit and income brackets, with credit usage escalating across higher income quintiles. This trend is influenced by structural elements like the ability to repay, actual market demand, familiarity with financial products, financial literacy, and digital proficiency.

The survey included questions about loan applications in the last 12 months, considering different sources: financial institutions, informal lenders, pawnshops, and businesses. For those who did not apply for credit, the reason was investigated. The results show that 91.3% of the reasons correspond to lack of demand or perceptions of risk: “I haven’t needed it,” “I don’t meet the requirements,” and “Taking out a loan is too risky.” In contrast, the reason linked to being registered with the Credit Bureau, which has been cited in political debates, accounted for only 0.7%, a figure that indicates its marginal relevance among the barriers to access to credit.

These results diverge from the perspectives of political figures, including the candidate from the governing LIBRE party, who has asserted that the Central Credit Registry restricts credit accessibility and has advocated for its removal. Statistical data indicates that the actual impediments to financial inclusion are more strongly linked to socioeconomic factors, educational attainment, and savings habits, alongside the perceived risk stemming from the prevailing economic conditions.

Financial integration and geographical analysis

In terms of participation in the financial system, the survey reflects a level of banking penetration of 42% of the population over 15 years of age with some type of deposit account or electronic wallet. This data is consistent with information from the World Bank’s Global Findex 2025, which reports 42% for Honduras in 2024, placing the country below neighboring nations such as Costa Rica (71%) and Panama (64%). In addition, there has been a decline compared to pre-pandemic indicators from 2017, highlighting the structural challenges the country faces in terms of financial inclusion.

The research highlights that broadening the availability of credit and financial offerings necessitates evidence-based solutions, including financial literacy programs, bolstering savings mechanisms, and enhancing the overall business environment. Actions that entail the removal or alteration of credit data could lead to institutional regressions and increased obstacles for individuals currently outside the formal financial framework.

Organizational hurdles and the financial landscape

The financial inclusion module identifies the critical bottlenecks that limit credit expansion in Honduras. Beyond political discussions about the Credit Bureau, access to and use of credit is conditioned by household economic capacity, financial education, and risk perception in an environment marked by economic volatility and high levels of informal employment.

The data gathered by INE Honduras, CNBS, and the IDB offers crucial insights for developing public policies designed to enhance financial participation securely and sustainably, thereby preventing the implementation of actions not supported by verifiable information. The examination of the survey results corroborates that financial inclusion is a complex process influenced by multiple factors, with income, education, and economic foresight playing a more significant role than merely credit regulations.